Can The Guardians Steal A Win With Aaron Civale?

In what is a crucial three-game series between the Cleveland Guardians and the Chicago White Sox, it seems as if the season really starts today. The Guardians have a four-game lead on the AL Central and will be heading to the South Side to start a three-game series with White Sox.

White Sox Bringing Their Best Arms

Cleveland will see the best of this White Sox rotation as they’ll be throwing potential Cy Young candidate Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn who has been red hot down the stretch, and Johnny Cueto if he’s good to go.

The Windy City Sox will have no excuses against us this time, especially since they get to see Aaron Civale in his first start back since his most recent injury. 

I’d love to say I have confidence in Civale, but who knows what version of him we will get. 

In his four starts during the month of August, Civale pitched to a 3.43 ERA and a FIP of 3.80. 

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Guardians ML Make Sense?

If this is the Civale that we’ll see, betting on the Guardians at (+148) tonight feels like great value. 

Cleveland is 9-7 against Chicago this season and has seemingly found ways to pull out wins at Guaranteed Rate Field. 

Civale is 4-3 in his career against the White Sox with an ERA of five. Most of his bad starts have been complete meltdowns, so hopefully he finds ways to keep his pitches down in the zone so this powerful White Sox lineup can't drive missiles out of the park. 

Keys To Getting It Done For Cleveland

Civale’s biggest struggles come when he gives up the long ball. His worst start last month was against Seattle where he surrendered two home runs and two walks. He has to be around the bottom half in the zone and get himself in good counts so batters can’t be picky. 

The White Sox get very aggressive early in counts, and that will be no different if Luis Robert is good to go tonight. 

If Civale can throw early strikes and only give up a solo shot or two, then I think Cleveland can do a great job at ruining the White Sox' season. The Guardians' magic number is sitting at 12 right now, let’s cut that down to single digits, and we can have an October to remember.