Cleveland Browns Win Total Prediction: Over/Under After Schedule Release

The Cleveland Browns schedule was released this past week, as was the rest of the NFL teams.

The AFC North will be paired with the NFC South this season, where each team from their respective conference will play each other. The NFC South includes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, and Carolina Panthers.

Let's look ahead to what is in store for the Cleveland Browns and their over/under for total wins for the 2022/2023 NFL season.

Schedule Overview

The Browns will start off their 2022 season in Carolina vs. the Panthers on September 11th, followed by the New York Jets a week later. They will open up divisional play against the Steelers at home on Thursday, September 22nd. They will play the Falcons, Chargers, and Patriots in consecutive weeks following that Thursday night game before returning to divisional play.

Games against the Ravens and Bengals follow in Weeks 7 and 8, which will lead into their bye week. They will play at the Dolphins, at the Bills, at home against the Buccaneers, and at the Texans in Weeks 10-13.

Weeks 14 and 15 consist of AFC North matchups against the Bengals and the Ravens. Finally, they will play the Saints and the Commanders in Weeks 16 and 17 before finishing off the season on the road against Pittsburgh.

The Browns will have two primetime games this season, including Week 3 at home against the Steelers for Thursday Night Football and Week 8 at home against the Bengals for Monday Night Football.

Over/Under Analysis

The Browns are currently projected to win 9.5 games this season which is tied for first in the AFC North with the Bengals and Ravens. 

Deshaun Watson's availability for the 2022 season will have a great impact on the expected win total, so this number may change based off of that timeline. The tough part of their schedule happens after their Week 9 bye week, with six of their last nine games on the road.

Other odds for the Browns include +210 to win the division, +1000 to win the conference, and +2000 to win the Super Bowl.

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Final Thoughts

It is very apparent that the Browns are heavily relying that Deshaun Watson will be able to play to make them playoff contenders. There is a possibility that Watson could be out the whole year or not suspended at all by the NFL for his alleged sexual misconduct allegations against him. It is projected that, conservatively, it will be between four and eight games.

Then, the question stands: Will a Browns backup QB be able to win them enough games to keep them in contention while Watson is out?

If he's out for zero to four games, then there is time to recover. If it's eight games or longer, there is no way this Browns' team will be able to thrive without their new star quarterback.

I would take the under on the Browns' win total if you were to ask me today to take a risk on it, but if Watson is able to play the majority of the season, the Browns will be very dangerous.