UFC Fight Night Vera vs. Cruz Betting Odds & Analysis

UFC Fight Night Vera vs. Cruz Betting Odds & Analysis

Barry Devoe
4 months ago
3 min read
UFC's Marlon Vera celebrates after defeating Frankie Edgar

A UFC Fight Night event is back in front of a live crowd in San Diego this Saturday, August 13. 

Headlining the main card is a 5-round bout between two top-10 bantamweights. Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera (19-7-1) will be facing Dominick Cruz (24-3) in Cruz’s hometown. The winner of this fight will most likely be put in the driver’s seat for a title shot, or for sure a top contender bout. 

Vera Vs. Cruz Betting Preview

betJACK has Marlon Vera as the favorite in this one at -233. Dominick Cruz is in the part of his career where he needs to handle being the underdog in just about every fight at this level. Cruz has a lot of value in the moneyline at +185. The oddsmakers don’t usually put someone with his level of experience and ability as an underdog like this.

Another great line is a prop bet on either fighter to win by decision. Both these guys have the conditioning and ability to fight for 25 minutes at an incredible pace. I expect this one to go the distance when you look at their fighting styles and durability.

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Fight Breakdown

Breaking down close fights like this one always comes down to the styles of both fighters. Cruz is a legend in the sport. He could be called the GOAT of the bantamweight division easily just by his resume. He has beat the best and has done it for a long time. The unique footwork that Cruz brings to the octagon and his ability to touch his opponent and get out of the way is special. 

Vera is known to get off to slow starts, kind of feel out his opponent, and then ride momentum in the closing rounds. Now he has experience going 25 minutes, which means he will have even more confidence than he did with Rob Font in his last bout. He will be able to take shots from Cruz and still be a threat to cause damage for all 5 rounds.

Marlon Vera

Doing research on this matchup made me instantly try to find the different ways that both fighters could come out victorious on Saturday night. For Vera, I see him being the more powerful fighter, and the more durable as well.

One issue that comes to mind is how he has performed, even in his biggest wins. Not taking anything away from Vera, but in some of his biggest fights against O’Malley, Edgar, and Font, he was losing a lot of minutes. He lost the majority of the fights and just came out on top with the more damaging strikes landed, which is all that matters. But you have to think about how great Cruz is and you know he will come into this fight with a solid game plan to not get hit with those damaging shots.

Vera will come out and try to cut the cage off from Cruz, while landing big leg kicks to slow down the movement, which will lead to more damaging shots landing in the later rounds of the fight. This needs to be a dirty street fight for Vera to win in a dominant fashion.

Dominick Cruz

Dominick Cruz is who he is because of his footwork. He invented his own style of movement to allow himself to still fight at this level at 38 years old. You can’t even compare any of Vera’s last fights to figure out the outcome of this one because no one is similar to Cruz. When you fight Cruz, you have to change the way you fight.

Cruz has the ability to move the way he does for 25 minutes, which will be a challenge for Vera. If Cruz can stay away from the damaging leg kicks, elbows in the clinch, and maybe even steal a few takedowns in the later rounds of the fight, I think he puts himself in a great position to have his hand raised at the end of the night.

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