Why Liam Hicks's hit prop Deserves A Longer Look In Yankees-Rays

The Yankees host the Rays in Game 3 of the AL Division Series, a best-of-five series in the 2026 MLB playoffs. Tampa Bay leads the series 2-0.

What The Current Numbers Actually Say
New York is 6-4 over the last 10 games, scoring 46 runs and allowing 33 (4.6 scored and 3.3 allowed per game). Tampa Bay is 6-4 in the last 10, with 40 runs scored and 29 allowed (4.0 and 2.9 per game).

Max Fried, the listed New York starter, has a 2.80 ERA and 0.99 WHIP across 112 2/3 regular-season innings, with 104 strikeouts and 33 walks. Tampa Bay counters with Nick Martinez: a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 109 strikeouts and 26 walks in 180 innings.

New York posted a .309 on-base percentage and .714 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, the matchup with Nick Martinez. Against left-handers such as Max Fried, Tampa Bay produced a .315 OBP and .679 OPS. Those splits identify how readily each lineup has put runners on and followed with damage against the arm it faces.

Which Trend Actually Creates A Bet
New York reached four runs in 5 of the last 10 games and scored two or fewer on 5 occasions. Tampa Bay reached four in 5 of 10 and scored two or fewer on 4 occasions.

Max Fried averages 8.31 strikeouts and 2.64 walks per nine; Nick Martinez is at 5.45 and 1.30. Max Fried's combination of strikeouts and control gives New York a way to strand runners: finish an at-bat without a ball in play, then avoid the free pass that would put another hitter in scoring position.

How To Bet The Next Game
The pick is the Yankees moneyline (-167). New York's scoring frequency gives them a way to build a lead without relying on one big swing. Max Fried's 0.99 WHIP and 2.64 walks per nine are the pitching support: fewer free baserunners make Tampa Bay string together hits to score, while his strikeouts can shut down an inning with runners aboard. New York's 5 recent games with at least four runs give that run prevention something to protect.

The second look is Under 7.5 (-137). Max Fried averages 8.31 strikeouts per nine and Nick Martinez 5.45. Nick Martinez's lower strikeout rate puts more of his outs in the hands of the defense. Their WHIPs are 0.99 and 1.09, respectively. The lineups' .714 and .679 OPS marks against the relevant pitching hands reinforce a game in which sustained damage is harder to build. The under needs the starters to keep runners off base and avoid extra-base damage on contact. Strikeout rates alone do not establish that case; walks and hits that extend innings are the risk.

The Prop Bets That Belong On The Card
The contact case for Liam Hicks over 0.5 hits (-148) comes from his work against left-handed pitching. Hicks has struck out in 14.4% of those plate appearances this season (17 in 118), an encouraging part of the matchup with Max Fried. His recent results include 8 hits in 10 games, with 4 multi-hit performances; he cleared this line in 4 of those games.

Trent Grisham under 0.5 hits (+106) is the second individual under against Nick Martinez. Trent Grisham has 3 hits and 3 total bases over his last 10 games, clearing this threshold in 3 of them. Grisham went hitless in 7 of those 10 games.

Research Behind The Angle
The Yankees are 6-4 over their last 10 games with a +13.0 run differential.
Recent run environment: 4.6 runs scored per game and 3.3 allowed over that span.
The Yankees' most recent result was a 5-2 loss to the Rays.
The Yankees' next scheduled game is at home against the Rays on Wednesday, October 7.
Probable starter: Max Fried.
Probable starter: Nick Martinez.
Live betJACK side price: the Yankees moneyline (-167).
Live betJACK opponent side price: the Rays moneyline (+133).
Live betJACK total: Over 7.5 (+104) / Under 7.5 (-137).
Live betJACK hitter prop: Liam Hicks over 0.5 hits (-148).
Liam Hicks has 8 hits and 10 total bases over his last 10 games, clearing this threshold in 4 of them.
Liam Hicks against left-handed pitching in 2026: 20 hits in 104 at-bats (.192), 17 strikeouts in 118 plate appearances.
Max Fried against left-handed hitters in 2026: 16 hits allowed in 92 at-bats, including 3 doubles and 0 home runs.
Live betJACK hitter prop: Trent Grisham under 0.5 hits (+106).
Trent Grisham has 3 hits and 3 total bases over his last 10 games, clearing this threshold in 3 of them.
Trent Grisham against right-handed pitching in 2026: 60 hits in 298 at-bats (.201), 61 strikeouts in 348 plate appearances.
Nick Martinez against left-handed hitters in 2026: 94 hits allowed in 399 at-bats, including 20 doubles and 13 home runs.
The Yankees host the Rays in Game 3 of the AL Division Series, a best-of-five series in the 2026 MLB playoffs. Tampa Bay leads the series 2-0.
Tampa Bay Rays went 6-4 over the last 10 completed games, scoring 40 runs and allowing 29.
Max Fried (2.80 season ERA, 0.99 WHIP).
Nick Martinez (3.10 season ERA, 1.09 WHIP).

betJACK is fully licensed and operational in Ohio. betJACK currently offers a digital sports betting platform available to eligible users in Ohio & Retail sportsbook locations at JACK Cleveland Casino and JACK Thistledown Racino. Customers in Ohio can place bets online through the betJACK app or in person at our retail sportsbooks.