UFC Fight Night Thompson vs. Holland Betting Preview

The UFC is back this weekend, December 3, at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. This stacked Fight Night event will be in front of a rowdy live crowd, which really brings these Fight Night’s to the next level since the pandemic.

Headlining the main card, we have a welterweight showdown between Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-6-1) and Kevin Holland (23-8). This is a fan-favorite fight, with both men bringing in a large fanbase with a lot of hype around them.

Thompson is approaching the end of his fighting career, so an impressive win over someone as dangerous as Holland will put him in a good position to make one last run at the belt. Holland is looking for a big win over a UFC legend that will push him into the division’s Top-10 rankings.

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Betting Odds

UFC odds have Holland as the (-164) betting favorite over the former two-time title challenger. Thompson is the (+132) underdog as of right now approaching fight night. 

For Thompson to win inside the distance, the odds are set at (+260). Holland winning inside the distance is at (+135). 23 out of Holland’s 32 professional fights have been stopped before the judges’ opinions get brought into the decision.

Betting Analysis

This is a tough matchup for both fighters. Holland has his hands full with the technical striking ability of Thompson, along with the craftiness he uses in the traditional style of Karate. Thompson is going to have a hard time with the size and speed advantage of a much younger Kevin Holland.

Even though Holland has more MMA fights than Thompson, Wonderboy has the upper hand on experience. Thompson was an undefeated kickboxer with over 50 wins, has hundreds of Karate matches, and has taken one of the best welterweight champions ever to the scorecards twice, including a draw as one of the decisions. 

Their striking stats are very similar, both averaging just under 4 strikes landed per minute and about 2.5 strikes absorbed in that minute. 

The skill advantage, if anything, will go to Holland on the ground. 

Holland is going to be physically stronger, and he has a black belt in jiu-jitsu. I don’t think Holland will want to just go to the ground right away, but if the fight ends up there, he is very dangerous. 

As for the intangibles of this matchup, Thompson just seems to have more to fight for at this point. He has lost to some of the best fighters in the world in his last 5 fights, and hasn’t been happy with the matchmaking process done by the UFC. 

It just seems like Thompson will be more prepared to go 5-rounds and win this one. But, Holland will be the more dangerous man on the feet and on the ground, with a lot of confidence that he can get his done. 

A major factor will be how Holland talks to Thompson in the cage and if the kind-hearted nature of Thompson will be able to combat those mind games.

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