2022 NFL Passing Yard Leader Future Bets

Last season saw the continuation of the NFL’s passing revolution, as more and more signal-callers threw the pigskin for career highs. It’s safe to say you can expect more of the same in 2022.

Ten quarterbacks threw for over 4,000 yards in the league’s first 17-game season, with two of those QBs eclipsing 5,000 yards. Realistically, it will take a 5,000-yard season to lead the league in passing, or at least something very close to it.

With that said, here are the latest odds to lead the NFL in passing yards and a few of our favorite picks.

NFL Most Passing Yards Odds

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Justin Herbert (+700)

Patrick Mahomes (+800)

Tom Brady (+850)

Joe Burrow (+900)

Derek Carr (+900)

Matthew Stafford (+900)

Josh Allen (+1200)

Dak Prescott (+1300)

Russell Wilson (+1800)

Kirk Cousins (+2000)

Aaron Rodgers (+2000)

Jameis Winston (+2000)

Kyler Murray (+2500)

Tua Tagovailoa (+2500)

Deshaun Watson (+2500)

Trevor Lawrence (+3000)

Matt Ryan (+3000)

Jalen Hurts (+4000)

Mac Jones (+4000)

Ryan Tannehill (+4000)

Honorable Mentions: Trey Lance +5000, Zach Wilson +5000, Baker Mayfield +5000, Daniel Jones +7500, Lamar Jackson +8000

Justin Herbert (+700)

If it wasn’t for the ageless Brady putting on a passing clinic, Herbert would have led the NFL in rushing in only his second season. This year, the Los Angeles Chargers’ star is favored over Brady and everybody else.

The 24-year-old gunslinger threw for 5,014 yards across 17 starts last year. Part of that was due to his 672 attempts, which ranked second only to Brady. Assuming his attempts are in line with that again, another 5,000-yard season isn’t out of the question.

Herbert is a worthy favorite to lead the league in passing yards. Especially if his 65.9 completion percentage from 2021 rises a few points in the fall.

Joe Burrow (+900)

Burrow’s 2021 season was defined by a legendary playoff run and a Super Bowl appearance. In 2022, he could build on his legacy by leading a historically-great crop of quarterbacks in passing yards.

Burrow threw for 4,611 yards last year, good enough for sixth in the NFL. But consider the fact he only had 520 attempts, nearly 200 less than Brady across the 18-week season. But thanks to a league-leading 70.4 completion rate and an average completion distance of 8.9 yards, Burrow’s numbers were still elite.

After the Cincinnati Bengals made offseason improvements to the offensive line, Burrow won’t take anywhere close to the 51 sacks he took last year. Fewer sacks mean more passes, which means more yards, which means a possible passing title on the way.

Josh Allen (+1200)

The last time Allen stepped on a football field, he and Mahomes had two of the greatest QB performances in playoff history. It will be fascinating to see if the momentum from that legendary AFC Divisional Round carries over into the regular season.

In 17 starts, Allen threw for 4,407 yards on 646 attempts, ranking eighth and fourth, respectively. He was held back in part by a 63.3 completion rate that sat between Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz. However, he could always revert back to something closer to the 69.2 percent he had in 2020.

The Buffalo Bills now have Ken Dorsey, Allen’s former quarterback coach, serving as the offensive coordinator. With a former QB now running the offense, there may be even more focus on placing Allen in the best position to drop huge numbers next season.

Other Picks

Matthew Stafford (+900) defeated Burrow in the Super Bowl and could make a play at the passing-yard title this fall. The veteran finished third in the league with 4,886 yards on just 601 attempts. With weapons like Cooper Kupp still in place, Stafford makes for a decent pick.

As far as longshots go, Jameis Winston (+2000) is quite interesting. The last time Winston started a full season, he threw for a whopping 5,109 yards in 16 games. If healthy, he has the weapons around him in New Orleans to have a big year. However, he’ll have to drastically improve the 59.0 completion percentage he had in seven games last year.