Best Bets for NFL MVP

The 2021 NFL season is entering the penultimate week of regular-season action in the first-ever 18-week campaign. There has been a pleasant blend of familiar faces and young up-and-comers, both in the individual and team races, none more so than the Most Valuable Player Award.

Aaron Rodgers won last year’s honors with a 4,299-yard, 48-touchdown, five-interception year, and is once again firmly in the mix after going above and beyond making up for his opening-week horror against the New Orleans Saints.

Rodgers is not alone in his quest for the MVP, however, with many other players having a solid case to make as to why the award is theirs; here are a few of the best bets to place with just two weeks to go, both for likelihood and value.

Aaron Rodgers (-167)

Rodgers is the front-runner for the award in most people’s eyes, having thrown for 3,689 yards, 33 touchdowns, and four interceptions while leading the Green Bay Packers to a 12-3 record, the best in the National Football League, already locking up the NFC North. The former Super Bowl champion is likely to lose votes for his deception and antics related to COVID earlier in the season, but his on-field performances have been mostly sensational. 

A-Rod also has the all-important signature moment, a win at the Arizona Cardinals during which he was missing three of his top wideouts and a slew of other starters, though he still managed to hand the then-league leaders their first loss of the year.

Cooper Kupp (+2500)

The history of award voting has proven that voters like “fresh,” and that is exactly what Cooper Kupp provides to the MVP race. One of the major obstacles standing in his way is his counterpart, quarterback Matthew Stafford, but the historical significance of his season, should it pan out near its current trajectory, could not be overlooked.

Not only is Kupp on pace to win the receiving triple-crown, but he is also set to set the NFL all-time records for single-season receiving yards (1,964) and receptions (149) and would tie for the 15th-most receiving touchdowns in a season (16). MVP races usually come down to quarterbacks and the rare running back, pass-rusher, or even defensive back, but Kupp’s outlandish stat-line would certainly be enough to attract the interest of at least a fraction of voters. 

Joe Burrow (+5000)

With respect to Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers, the Cincinnati Bengals’ QB is practically a shoo-in to win Comeback Player of the Year— but he is also not that far off of a much more prestigious award, the MVP. At +5000 odds, Burrow’s risk-reward line is better than any other viable candidate, especially with a chance to significantly improve his case over the final weeks, perhaps more than any other player.

The Bengals have not won the AFC North since 2015 when they finished 12-4 and were the #3 seed in the conference; currently, the Bengals are 9-6, good for third in the AFC, and look the most likely to win a division that many argued was the toughest and most competitive in football, and one that Cinci was expected to finish last in— talk about making an impact. 

Burrow currently ranks sixth in passing yards and seventh in touchdowns and is fresh off of a 525-yard, four-touchdown performance, which could prove to be his defining moment if he closes out the campaign with two high-octane performances. He would need Rodgers, Tom Brady, and perhaps Jonathan Taylor to slip up, but to say that Burrow is at least top-five in the current race for the award would not be an understatement.