How Much Will Evan Mobley Really Help the Cavs in 2021?

The 2021 NBA Draft was held on Thursday, and the Cavs had the No. 3 pick. With it, they took Evan Mobley out of USC, marking their second first-rounder out of USC since 2019. The plan is for him to be much better than the prior guy and to make a reputation for himself as a two-way sensation.

He projects to come in with a big role right off the bat. The Mobley expectation is that once Jarrett Allen officially re-signs, the two will be paired next to one another at the start of games. 

But, just how much can he help?

Projecting Mobley’s Position

With Allen likely to return, Mobley is expected to slot in as the power forward. Memphis uses Jaren Jackson Jr. as a PF, as Dallas has also used Kristaps Porzingis in the past. Both of those guys have played quality basketball there, despite their long frames.

Mobley is a player who can come in to play PF and thrive there. He will get some backup center moments too, but the majority of his chances will come as the four. It will be a good chance to keep Kevin Love from having to play too large of a role, with another opportunity for Larry Nance Jr. to slot in.

The USC product projects to be a stretch big who will make far more than the 12 threes he hit in his lone year as a Trojan. He’ll put the time in and eventually become a knockdown shooter.

Will He Be a Reliable Shooter?

If a player shoots 12-40 from three, that’s only 30 percent. That is not good and usually means they have to put a lot more time into fixing it. That is what the numbers were for Evan Mobley at USC. But the 12 makes have to be encouraging, as it shows he is confident enough to keep firing them up.

He takes barely more than one per game and should consider tripling, at minimum, the output during his first year in the pros. The inside touches will occasionally be there, as will those on the high post. But Mobley’s main job is going to be the perimeter shot-maker. The pick-and-pop guy frees up Garland and Sexton, then pops free.

He can, in fact, be counted on, just like Jackson Jr in Memphis. He will put the time in to become a specialist in his new role.

Rookie of the Year?

Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green are due to have huge rookie campaigns. The same will be true of Jalen Suggs, who may slot in as the starting shooting guard in Orlando. But Mobley will be in the running for the Rookie of the Year award.

His ability to dominate both on the glass and defending the paint will have him posting big numbers nightly. Add in his soft shooting touch that’s on the way, and huge stats will await Mobley. He’ll certainly have a better shot than Okoro of winning it.

At the end of the day, bets should be made for Mobley. Don’t bet too much money because he’s an underdog. But it could be bonkers.