Joe Burrow Comeback Player of the Year Odds

The fun of the 2020 season ended when rookie quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a torn ACL, torn MCL, and additional damage to his PCL and meniscus in Cincinnati’s Week 11 matchup against Washington. Fast-forward to now, where the former first overall pick is on the field for training camp and expected to be all systems go for Week 1.

Burrow’s comeback story is amazing, and oddsmakers are taking note. At +700, only Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (+210) is favored ahead of Burrow to win the Comeback Player of the Year Award. 

Let’s take a look at why Burrow’s odds are so strong, some of the other competition he may face for the award, and whether he is worth betting on ahead of his season debut on September 12.

Burrow’s case to win

Fresh off of a Heisman Trophy, National Championship, and a first overall draft selection, the expectations for Burrow were enormous. Starting with his professional debut at home against the Chargers, the Bengals entrusted Burrow with running an offense that included running back Joe Mixon and receivers Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, and rookie Tee Higgins.

Even though Cincy’s record with Burrow was just 2-7-1, the team did not waver in support. The young QB had 30 or more attempts in all of his starts, four multi-touchdown games, and no more than one interception in any start.

Now entering his second year, it’s clear that the team has no plans to baby Burrow. Even with the injury, the fact he is on the field during camp now shows they feel he’s ready, and his usage last year shows the team will allow him lots of opportunities to lead them to victory.

Now with Ja’Marr Chase in the mix, his former top receiver at LSU, Burrow will not only complete his comeback, but also potentially put up huge numbers. He was already on pace to lead the league in attempts in 2020, which if that pace continues will give him decent chances to hit big yardage and touchdown totals.

It also helps Burrow’s case that the Bengals, who have now gone five straight years without a playoff berth. If Joe can have the team playing competitive football games in December, the award voters will surely offer him some additional love.

Burrow facing stiff competition

While Burrow is one of the favorites to win Comeback Player of the Year, and deservingly so, there are a handful of other players who will be considered. The main one is Prescott, who suffered a compound fracture and dislocation to his right ankle in Week 5.

Aside from Dak, Giants running back Saquon Barkley is tied with Burrow at +700. The two-time 1,000-yard rusher missed nearly all of 2020 after tearing his ACL in Week 2. Another running back, Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey, had a high ankle sprain as well as a shoulder injury that limited him to only three starts last season.

Others who may give Burrow some competition include Colts QB Carson Wentz, 49ers stars George Kittle and Nick Bosa, and the Browns’ Odell Beckham Jr. Besides guys coming off of injuries, even someone like Saints QB Jameis Winston, who sat behind the now-retired Drew Brees, is an option if he has a great season.

Burrow is worth the bet

Despite all the big names of players who have Comeback POTY potential, Burrow still stands out. His injury, a serious one at that, saddened the entire football community, while his return to practice this month has given everyone joy, Bengals fans or not. 

The second-year QB is already a candidate to win just by being on the field and playing all 17 games in 2021. But if he can be a star on top of that, something many experts still expect from the former top pick, his case will be hard to argue. 

At considerably lower odds than Prescott, betting Burrow to win this award is worth it.