March Madness Round of 64 Betting Preview: Day Two
I am 9-5 in picks since the start of March Madness. If you had million-dollar units, you would be up over 5 million dollars since I had a New Mexico State money line as a play yesterday. Overall, I’m red hot no matter what your unit size is (no unit shaming). Today’s picks are locks once again, let's keep these positive vibes rolling.
#7 Ohio State (+0.5) vs #10 Loyola Chicago
66% of bets placed are on the 10 seed Ramblers to pull off the “upset” over Ohio State. Call me a homer all you want, but I think Ohio State can get the job done here. Whenever so much of the public money is on a lower seed, it’s a safe play to go with the favorite.
The Buckeyes should finally be healthy as Zed Key and Kyle Young will be good to go, and their presence inside is key (pun intended) for Chris Holtmann. Unless a team’s defense is very elite, I like a better offense 10-out-of-10 times in March. I think EJ Lidell will be too much to handle for Sister Jean, and I think Ohio State wins this game. Finally, playing in Pittsburgh is essentially a home game for the Buckeyes, so expect to see a lot of scarlet in the crowd today.
Pick: OSU +0.5
#6 Texas (-1) vs #11 Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech has not been very good this year; however, they got hot at the right time. They ran through a bad ACC and were a bid stealer this season, but I still don’t think they’re very good. KenPom’s advanced metrics love the Longhorns this season, having one of the best defenses in the country to go along with a very solid offense. Tech is a bit of a KenPom darling as well, with their top 20 offense, but I believe their offensive numbers are juiced up from playing in a bad ACC.
Texas’ head coach, Chris Beard’s no middle defense causes tons of issues in March as it is very hard to prepare for. If Virginia Tech can't work the ball inside, I don’t think their shooters will get the open looks they need to pull off the upset. Finally, I placed a +4000 future on Texas to win this whole thing back in January so I’d be quite upset to see them go down round one.
Pick: Texas -1
#7 Michigan State vs #10 Davidson O/U 140
All I’ve heard this week about this game is how great Davidson’s offense is. But where was this vaunted offense in the A10 Championship? The Spiders held Davidson to just 62 points in the bid-stealing tournament finale. Frankly, Michigan State’s defense is far stingier than anything Davidson saw throughout conference play.
With that being said, Michigan State’s offense is one big question mark. The Spartans have only topped 80 points once in their last 7 outings, and they don’t really have anyone on their roster who can take over a game late. I love Freshman Max Christie to be a key contributor in the tournament, and I do think MSU can win this one, but I don’t think there will be many points in this one. Hammer the under in this one.
Pick: Under 140
#6 LSU vs #11 Iowa State (+4) O/U 126
Do you know what’s great for team morale right before the tournament? Your head coach getting fired out of the blue. That’s exactly what happened to Will Wade at LSU. I’ve found this Tigers team wildly overrated most of the season, and I think Iowa State is a matchup nightmare for them.
Iowa State’s Izaiah Brockington is the type of player that single handily wins you games in March, and LSU has struggled against teams with star guards all season long. Both of these teams have been top 10 defenses all year long, that’s why this total is only at 126. However, I believe that coaching is far more important to defense than offense, so I think Iowa State is about to have a “coming out party” on offense. Of all my picks in this blog, this is the by far least stat-based, it’s mostly just a feeling. But that feeling is that Iowa State is going to win and score a ton of points.
Picks: Iowa State +4, Over 126, Iowa State +160 (0.5u)
My bracket might be busted, but my picks are still money. Follow responsibly.
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