NCAA March Madness Round of 64 Day One Best Bets

The picks went 5-3 during the First Four. Overall, no complaints from me, and that’s something to build off of going into today. My strategy for today is to not overthink it. I’m seeing the board well and I’m giving out winners. Let’s get right into it.

No. 6 Colorado State (+1.5) vs No. 11 Michigan

Vegas has shifted Michigan to a favorite in a game that many models have Colorado State favored in. If the Rams can keep Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson and Moussa Diabate off of the glass, they’ll have no problems in this one.

Pick: Colorado State +1.5

No. 2 Kentucky vs No. 15 St. Peter’s (+17.5)

Make no mistake, Kentucky is going to win this game, but 17.5 is way too many points. The Peacocks (awesome name) have a top 10 defense in the country. According to TeamRankings, St. Peter’s ranks top 10 in opponent points per possession, opponent field goal percentage, and top 50 in creating turnovers. They won’t be able to stop Oscar Tshibwe, but I think they can hang around with Coach Cal’s Wildcats.

Pick: St Peter’s +17.5

No. 5 UConn vs No. 12 New Mexico St. (+6.5)

These teams are very similar. They’re above average on offense and defense, but they both rebound the crap out of the ball. The Huskies have the second-highest offensive rebound percentage in the country, but they’ll be up against an Aggie team that can rebound just as well as they can. If NMSU can hold UConn off of the glass, they can get out in transition and get some easy points on a Huskies unit that will get tired from crashing the glass all night. I love New Mexico State here.

Pick: NMSU +6.5, NMSU +235 (0.5u)

No. 12 Richmond vs No. 5 Iowa O/U 151

The Richmond Spiders are a pretty solid of fense that has been red hot of late, and Keegan Murray and the Hawkeye’s are the second most efficient offense in the country per KenPom. Iowa has scored at least 80 points in 7 out of their last 10 games, and I think they top that marker on Thursday as well. If Richmond can hang around in this one, I predict this game to go way over.

Pick: Over 151

No. 8 Boise State vs No. 9 Memphis O/U 133.5

These are two defensive-minded teams. KenPom has them both inside the top 40 most efficient defenses, but their tempos are completely different. Boise plays one of the slowest styles of basketball in the tournament and I think they’ll control the flow in this one. I haven’t been high on Memphis like most have this year, and I think Boise State can win this game. If they don’t win they’re at least going to make this thing ugly.

Pick: Under 133.5

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