Super Bowl LVI Over/Under: What's the Best Bet?

The Super Bowl is the biggest sports game on the calendar and should see a lot of money fly around via betting. However, one major bet is deciding if we should expect the over or under on total points scored in this game. 

According to most sportsbooks, the consensus seems to be 48.5 total points so for purposes of this article, that is the number we are going to be using. Check your sportsbooks because the number can continue to change as the game gets closer. 

Looking at History

Trends are telling us the under should be in play because two of the previous three Super Bowls had less than 48.5 points. This could be due to several reasons why but the simplistic answer seems to be that defenses can play well against teams that are starstruck from the extravaganza that is the Super Bowl. 

Offense is more about gaining a rhythm, and defense is more just will. Both defenses have been spectacular throughout this postseason as Cincinnati is allowing just 19.7 points per game while Los Angeles is giving up 18.3 points per game. 

These Teams Can Be Overwhelmed

The largeness of the game can be a little intimidating, but these teams are both slow starters in the postseason, and in order to expect a number large enough like this to hit, you would want early scoring. 48.5 points is expecting seven combined touchdowns and extra points to happen or more than 12 points per quarter. 

The pressure of this being the first playoffs run for either Joe Burrow or Matthew Stafford could be a factor that the stage could be a little too big for them to begin. These teams do get two weeks between the Conference Championship Game and the Super Bowl, so typically, offenses are behind the eight ball to begin and gain rhythm over the course of the game. 

Both the Bengals and the Rams possess a good running game to complement the lively arms of their respective quarterback. Both Joe Mixon for Cincinnati and Cam Akers for Los Angeles should have a steady helping of rushing attempts in this game to provide balance for these offenses and that means a continuously-running clock, making it more difficult to score points. 

Okay, So Should I Bet the Over or the Under?

The under seems to be the more logical play as both defenses have been cruising this playoff run, and it makes sense. Look at the names with guys like Trey Hendrickson, Chidobe Awuzie, Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Jalen Ramsey on defense, and each could play a major impact. The Bengals are 12-12 on field goal attempts throughout their postseason run, with rookie Evan McPherson not folding to the pressure with his kicks and a veteran like Matt Gay on the other sideline. 

These teams are going to take their three points when they can, and it’s difficult to take the over with a good amount of field goals. Punter Johnny Hekker for the Rams is one of the best in the game as well so he could pin Cincy deep in their own territory and make it harder to get into scoring range. All that to say, under 48.5 points seems like the better decision. 

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