Updated Odds To Win 2021 NL MVP

Updated Odds To Win 2021 NL MVP

Matthew Smith
3 years ago
1 min read

Juan Soto - Nationals +750

The Washington Nationals phenom is poised for an incredible career based on his first three years in the league.

In the COVID-19 shortened season, he slashed .351/.490/.695 with a .478 wOBA and an eye popping 201 wRC+.

To put that in perspective, Soto was 101% above league average. That’s breaking an algorithm good. How does one even compute that?

At 22 he’s only going to get better and I love him as the favorite to take home the 2021 NL MVP.

Mookie Betts - Dodgers +750

Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts sits at the same odds of +750 as Nationals star Juan Soto.

Mookie was phenomenal for the Dodgers after coming over in a trade from the Boston Red Sox last off season. He slashed .262/.36/.562 with a .390 wOBA and a 149 wRC+.

That is considered a very good season and MVP caliber and was still 52% worse than Juan Soto’s 2020 season. That’s why it’s hard to bet Betts over Soto in this situation.

Even when Betts was amazing and led the Dodgers to their first World Series title since 1989, he wasn’t in the Soto's league from a statistics perspective.

The advantage Betts has is he plays for a superior team, so being able to accumulate stats like runs and RBI will be easier for Betts.

Cody Bellinger - Dodgers +800

If I’m betting on someone other than Soto, I’m putting my money on the 2019 NL MVP, Cody Bellinger.

The Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder saw his numbers come down substantially in the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season compared to his league MVP awarded 2019.

He slashed .239/.333/.455 for a .337 wOBA and a 114 wRC+. That was down quite a bit from 2019, but was probably more reflective of Bellinger as a player.

He is somewhere in between his 2019 and 2020 seasons, but that is still MVP caliber.

Bellinger has similar advantages that his teammate Mookie Betts has. He hits in a loaded lineup, but will that cause Bellinger and Betts to share attention and potentially split votes beings they’re both Dodgers.

We have seen this play out before with teammates and it usually doesn’t end up well for them. I like Soto the most to win the award on this list. 

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