Can Shane Bieber Win Back-to-Back Cy Youngs?

As the Indians continue to fight for a playoff spot and perhaps even an AL Central title, one thing is for certain: Shane Bieber will have a large role in determining their success. The 25-year old is once again showcasing his elite arsenal as he puts up another excellent season as Cleveland’s ace.

However, while last year was a no-brainer, are Bieber’s numbers good enough to make him the current Cy Young favorite in the American League? Here are the pros and cons going for the Cleveland ace.

Pros

Right now, there is no pitcher in baseball who strikes out guys at the rate Bieber does. Through 10 starts, the big righty has 98 strikeouts in 65 innings, giving him a dazzling 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Assuming Bieber stays healthy and makes the usual 31 or 32 starts we see from starting pitchers, he has a chance to become the first pitcher since Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole in 2019 to reach 300 strikeouts in a season and just the sixth pitcher who is still active.

But it’s not just about punchouts for Bieber. The Southern California native also has eight quality starts, second in baseball, and FIP of 2.93, coming in lower than his 3.32 ERA. He’s also third among pitchers in the AL with a WAR of 1.7.

Cons

No one is arguing against Bieber having a great season. However, not only will he need to continue to pitch at a high level, but he also hopes a couple of his competitors begin to decline. 

The main competition right now is Cole, who, in his second year in New York, is putting up an incredible season. In eight starts and 64.2 innings, almost identical to Bieber, Cole has a 1.81 ERA and 0.80 WHIP with 92 strikeouts to just eight walks. For context, Bieber has 23 walks that play a hand in his 1.26 WHIP, which is the highest of any pitcher in baseball with six or more quality starts.

Others like Baltimore’s John Means and Texas’ Kyle Gibson have each had phenomenal seasons as well. But the likelihood of Bieber and Cole keeping their great numbers going throughout the year is higher than those two pitchers who just don’t have the same track record.

Is Bieber the favorite?

The easy answer as to whether Bieber is the favorite is no, and that’s in large part because of Cole. However, there are a couple of things he can do to put himself in higher standing.

As mentioned above, the walks are a bit of an issue so far, as he’s actually tied for the 10th-most in baseball. He also has allowed eight home runs; not a huge number but certainly more than Cole (5) has allowed. But Bieber has already passed his walk total (21) and home run total (7) from last year in two fewer starts.

Perhaps that is a testament to how good Bieber was last season and less of a knock on him this year. But those are the two biggest problem areas for him not being the AL Cy Young favorite.

However, the good news is that there is a lot of baseball left. Bieber still has 20ish starts to make and is still leading baseball in strikeouts as he aims to reach the 300-mark. It would be more surprising if he wasn’t in the thick of the race come September.