Cincinnati Reds Over/Under Win Total Bet Picks

The Cincinnati Reds come into this season trying to avenge their letdown last season of not making the playoffs. It appears that just as the Guardians are doing in Cleveland, the Reds’ ownership has decided to work towards a rebuild and let go of a lot of their main pieces who helped them make their push for the playoffs last season.

The main contributors that they have let go so far include Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker, Amir Garrett, Eugenio Suarez, and Sonny Gray. It is hard to believe that the Reds will be able to compete anywhere near the level that they were playing at last season.

Let’s look ahead at how many games the Reds are expected to win and if they will go over or under that win total.

Odds

The Reds are expected to win 74.5 games next season with odds of -127 to bet the over and -103 for the under. I find it hard to believe that the Reds will be able to hit this mark and win 74 games this season. I would take the under in this case in a heartbeat.

The Reds have already lost so many players that they will be filling these roles with either rookies or inexperienced players. Some of these players may not have seen any MLB playing time before this season.

With the win total around 75, the Reds are expected to have a record of 75-87. I would be very surprised if they were able to achieve this record.

Reds Expected Lineup

Five out of the nine expected starters for this year saw significant time last year, including Jonathan India, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Kyle Farmer, and Nick Senzel. Tyler Stephenson and Tyler Naquin had limited time, and Colin Moran and Jake Fraley saw little to no time. That is extremely dangerous, especially looking at the lack of depth on the team.

The bench besides Shogo Akiyama, who hit .224 last season, is mostly made up of newcomers from the minor leagues. With this young core, the Reds will struggle against adversity in a game where momentum can shift so quickly.

The Reds starting rotation also took a hit with the loss of Sonny Gray. Luis Castillo is battling a shoulder injury that may keep him out through Opening Day.

Tyler Mahle and Vladimir Guitierrez return to the Reds with very little experience. Mike Minor and Justin Dunn are new to the Reds through trades, but their stats show that they are nothing to write home about.

Conclusion

The Reds are in for an uphill battle this year, especially with their lowered expectations of finishing 12 games below .500. They were able to retain some of their team from last year, but their lack of depth is concerning, especially if they are plagued again with injuries like last season.

I expect the Reds to finish third or fourth in what will turn out to be a wash of a year as they enter their rebuild.

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