Best Prop Bets: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns October 9

The Cleveland Browns (2-2) play host to the Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) this Sunday. In this exciting AFC matchup, there is high potential for big plays by both teams on both sides of the ball. 

Kevin Stefanski’s signature run-the-ball (and the clock) mindset will go toe to toe with Brandon Staley’s pass-heavy attack. Keeping that in mind, here are some prop bet picks based on what we know about these teams. 

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Justin Herbert Over 272.5 Passing Yards (-114)

At this point, Joe Woods's braindead defense resembles a Thanksgiving-like feast for opposing quarterbacks. Yes, the Browns are still statistically above league average regarding passing yards allowed, yet they sit at an average of 212 passing yards allowed per game. 

Even worse, they have yet to play a quarterback of Justin Herbert’s caliber. The average plumber could probably throw for 250 yards against this Browns defense. Herbert has hit his yard prop this season and pitched over 300 yards in two games already. 

 Keenan Allen will not play for the Chargers, but even then, the Chargers have raked up the air yards without him.

Nick Chubb Under 92.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

It’s a testament to how dominant Nick Chubb has been this season that this prop pick might be considered by many as a “hot take.” Chubb has been steamrolling run defenses and has crossed over 100 yards in three games this season. The Chargers run defense has been average and liable to give up big plays. He can’t be stopped by opposing run defenders. That much is clear. 

But he can be stopped by his own team's game plan. When you play a team like the Chargers, run-first groups like the Browns could fall into the trap of turning the game into an air attack-heavy shootout if this game gets pass-heavy, which I think is likely. It may be hard for Nick Chubb to get the carries needed to cross the over. 

The Chargers offseason defensive additions in Khalil Mack, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and Austin Johnson are looking to prove their price tag after a slow start to the season. I fully expect Staley to load the box on early downs. 

Kareem Hunt Anytime TD (+165) & Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

We haven’t seen Kareem used in the capacity that Browns fans have grown accustomed to. I think this week could change that. Kevin Stefanski faced some heavy criticism for his red-zone playcalling. If the Browns are stuck on the goalline again, Kareem Hunt in the backfield may provide more versatility. 

If this game does turn pass-heavy in the 2nd half, Kareem could end up out-snapping Chubb because of the situation. 15.5 receiving yards seems attainable to Kareem, who should get enough passing work.

The forecast calls for an I-formation set with Chubb and Hunt in the backfield with a play-action rollout to Kareem Hunt in the flat for a touchdown. Prey on the Chargers tendency to over-commit to stopping the threat of Nick Chubb