UFC 279 Betting Odds For Nate Diaz vs. Khamzat Chimaev

On Saturday, September 10 the UFC is back with a numbered event in Las Vegas. UFC 279 will be taking place and headlined by a welterweight bout between Nate Diaz and Khamzat Chimaev.

These two fighters both live by the “anyone, anywhere, any time” mentality and have a lot of starpower behind them. Diaz is making potentially his last walk into the UFC octagon, while Chimaev seems to be just starting his long reign of terror within the organization. 

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UFC 279 Betting Odds

The odds of this bout are absolutely wild. I don’t know when we have ever seen a PPV main event fight with such a massive favorite, especially in MMA. 

Khamzat Chimaev is as big as a (-1112) favorite via betJACK. Diaz is the underdog at (+750). These odds show literally zero value in Chimaev and a ton in Diaz, who oddsmakers seem to think has no chance to win.

Fight Breakdown

So, with these odds, the only fighter who seems worth putting money on is Nate Diaz. There are lots of prop bets you can find with better value in your local sportsbooks, but I am here to tell you just how Nate Diaz can win this fight.

Diaz looks to be in worse shape than he was in his last trip to the octagon. I am not sure the severity of his fitness, but I assume he is in fight ready shape because he is constantly training. It might just be his age starting to catch up to him physically. 

If we assume that Diaz won’t show dramatic decline in the octagon on Saturday, we know that he will be ready to fight. If he can survive the first round against Chimaev, the fight odds dramatically increase in Diaz’s favor. 

The later this fight goes, the better chance Diaz has to pull off a massive upset.

It is tough to imagine Chimaev throwing caution to the wind and getting into a brawl with Diaz after all the yelling he took from his coaches after his last performance.

 But, we know Chimaev is a different breed of human and he might just decide to put on a show for the fans and keep them on their feet. 

The issue here is Chimaev has almost zero concern of getting knocked out by Diaz. He took the biggest shots that Gilbert Burns had to offer, while Diaz just doesn’t really sit down on any of his punches. This will lead to Chimaev having zero respect for Diaz and will walk him down.

How Can Diaz Win?

Diaz wins this fight only if Chimaev goes rogue and ignores his corner. If Chimaev gets sucked in by all the energy and the emotions leading up to this fight and goes for the kill in the first two rounds, that third round becomes a lot more interesting.

I could only see Diaz winning on scorecards by stealing the last three rounds. Or maybe even a late round, bloody rear naked choke due to exhaustion by Chimaev. 

Find a prop bet that gets Chimaev odds more value for your money. But, in MMA, you never know what can happen. 

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