Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 7 Baylor vs No. 8 Ole Miss Preview

The 2022 Allstate Sugar Bowl will pit two candidates for the national playoff, the No. 7 Baylor Bears and the No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels, against one another in a Big Ten-Southeastern Conference clash.

Baylor’s 11-2 season was by far their best in recent years, while Ole Miss’ 10-2 campaign was led by Heisman candidate and quarterback Matt Corral.

The Bears’ tenacious defense will be getting quite a handful with the Rebels’ high-flying offense, pitting strength on strength for the rights to the Sugar Bowl title.

Baylor Bears

Baylor could have been a strong candidate for one of the top four spots in America had they not lost to unranked Texas Christian five games ago, having gone 4-1 against ranked teams and spoiling #5 Oklahoma State’s bid for the playoff with a 21-16 win in their conference championship game.

QB Gerry Bohanon leads the squad with 2,160 yards, 17 touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Abram Smith’s 1,429 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground helped the team achieve its success. The Bears had a nearly even split between yards gained on the ground and through the air, making them difficult to game plan for and also hard to run off the field.

Baylor finished its regular season dialed in on the defensive side, allowing 16 points per game over the final month of football. Although they have offensive talent, the Bears would prefer to control the proceedings with their defense, one which has a solid spread of ability between all three levels.

Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss, meanwhile, has seen a majority of their success come from outsourcing their opponents, scoring 50+ points three times, and averaging a hair under 36 per game.

With one expected loss to #1 Alabama and a fairly close defeat to #18 Auburn, the Rebels had an impressive season, finishing 2-2 against ranked teams and second in the SEC’s West Division at 6-2, only trailing Alabama. Like Baylor, they finished their year on a four-game win streak, though they did not participate in the conference championship game.

Matt Corral is at the center of Ole Miss’ attack, totaling 3,936 yards, 31 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Three of the Rebels’ running backs are also over 500 yards on the season, led by Jerrion Ealy’s 703.

Senior wideout Dontario Drummond has also established himself as one of the better players at the position, only needing 76 yards to go over 1,000 on the season.

The Odds

Ole Miss is currently a -2.5 (-110) favorite in the game, while Baylor is at +2.5 (-110); the Rebels are also -130 on the moneyline to the Bears’ +110.

The points total has been set at 55.5 with (-105) odds on the over and (-115) on the under.

The Outlook

As impressive as Ole Miss has been this season, they are an offensive team with an offense that slowed down towards the end of the campaign. On New Year’s Day, they will encounter a Baylor team that has made a living off of slowing down the big dogs in their way, and they are primed to do this once again.

The key for the underdog Bears will be to control the time of possession battle and get their defense off of the field on third down as Corral needs no extra cracks at the end zone.

Expect the Allstate Sugar Bowl to be close throughout, but end with Baylor pulling taking home the trophy.