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CFB Saturday Best Bets
Week 5 of the college football season may be the most anticipated one yet, with a bunch of big-time matchups that will have a huge impact on the rest of the season. Tomorrow is a day that you don’t want to miss as a college football fan, and there is nothing more fun than laying down some action during a long day on games.
Arkansas vs. Georgia UNDER 50
There are a few low total games this week where I am comfortable betting the under because of the styles of play at hand, and I avoid unders like the plague in most weeks. Unders in college football betting can often be ruined by a tainted game script, and I want to avoid these desperation offenses late in games taking the game over the total.
In this matchup, I’d be shocked if we really saw that, even if either team were to get down big. The other thing is, how could one team get down big here without explosive plays? We know that Arkansas wants to keep everything in front of them defensively, and Georgia will be more than happy to just pound the rock.
Arkansas will try to do that same thing, with a dash of Treylon Burks in the passing game. I expect to see long scoring drives when teams do score in this game, and I think the running games will run this clock out relatively quickly.
Michigan vs. Wisconsin UNDER 43.5
Why am I betting an under at just 43.5 points? Have you watched these two teams? Man, this number feels like it should be 23, especially if we look at the 2nd half of their last performances.
Michigan completed nine passes vs. Rutgers, who wants to play you in a phone booth and dares you to take deep shots defensively. They have played a bad schedule and relied on rushing production to carry them to big games.
For Wisconsin, we have seen them vs. good competition, and it was not pretty offensively at ALL. This team relies on an underwhelming offensive line relative to Wisconsin expectations and a Clemson 3rd string RB to carry them in big games, and it doesn’t work. Mertz doesn’t even have explosive targets if he was willing to throw the ball downfield.
This game will end with the winning coach talking about the punter in the post-game interview, and that’s an under if I’ve ever heard one.
Ohio State Team Total OVER 36.5
This is my favorite bet of the slate. Ohio State gets back a healthier CJ Stroud, an offensive line that is ranked 3rd in the country per PFF, the most explosive RB in the country this year, and the best receiver group in the country. This team is averaging 8.6 (!!!!!) yards per play. This is 1 yard per play better than the second-best team in the country, and the schedule hasn’t even been nearly as bad as some others.
There have been some red-zone failures due to weird drops or misses, but this team is the only team that projects to be a truly elite offense this season, and them scoring less than 6 TDs against Rutgers is less than a 30% outcome to me. Lock it in.
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