Purdue Boilermakers vs Ohio State Betting Preview: Lots on the Line

The Ohio State Buckeyes will host the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday at Ohio Stadium for a 3:30 p.m. Big Ten matchup on ABC. Number four, Ohio State (8-1) holds down the top spot in the Big Ten East and has won their past seven games, including a 26-17 win at Nebraska last weekend.

Purdue (6-3) snuck its way into the top 25 after a commanding 40-29 win against Michigan State last weekend. They are now number 19 after quality wins versus Iowa and Michigan State. The Boilermakers will be looking to knock off their third top-five team this season.

Purdue stands tied for first in the Big Ten West. This game will be a great determination for how likely they are to make the Big Ten Championship. Can the Boilers play spoiler again and kill the Buckeyes’ playoff hopes?

Odds

Ohio State is a considerable 21.5-point favorite to win this game with the odds of -105 at this spread. Purdue, at +21.5, has odds of -120 to cover and make this game closer than the oddsmakers suspect. The over/under for this game is 62.5 total points with odds of -110 to bet the over or under.

Ohio State Keys to Winning

The Buckeyes are the favorites which is very warranted considering they are the home team and have shown lots of improvement throughout the season, especially on the defensive end. They have the second-highest scoring offense and highest yards gained per game behind Heisman candidate quarterback CJ Stroud who continues to shine and get more confident as a college quarterback.

The defense continues to improve and produces versus high-quality Big Ten competition. They rank 17th in points allowed per game and third in yards given up per rush. I expect them to defend mainly against the pass since Purdue passes 60% of the time and will not want to test the rushing waters against a stout Buckeyes rush defense.

Purdue Keys to Winning

Purdue’s passing game needs to be perfect as it was last week if they want to stay with the Buckeyes in Columbus. The offense is led by senior Aidan O’Connell, who ranks fifth in the NCAA in QBR at 86.2. He threw the ball 54 times against Michigan State, completing 74% of his passes and adding three touchdowns and zero interceptions.

The defense has been the saving grace for the Boilermakers as they rank 16th in points given up per game and sixth in opponent completion percentage. This will be a great matchup since the Buckeyes rely so much on the big pass play. I expect the Buckeyes to try to dismantle the Purdue defense with the rush as the Purdue defense gives up the 76th most yards per rush at 4.3 yards/rush.

Expected Outcome

Both teams have a lot to play for in this one: The Buckeyes to keep their playoff hopes alive and the Boilers to keep their Big Ten Championship hopes alive. I expect this to be closer than the oddsmakers are predicting.

Ohio State should win because it is in front of their home crowd, and they have a more complete football team. I could see this being a somewhat low-scoring affair going into the fourth quarter.