3 Keys to Betting on the NFL in 2021

Do Your Homework Early in the Season

Roster turnover in the NFL is a very real thing. Every year, players swap teams, and a new batch of coaches come in.

It’s important that you follow these moves and understand how they might impact the quality of the teams early in the season.

Sites like FootballOutsiders and Pro Football Focus are great to break down rankings for how offenses and defenses fared in 2020. It’s a good starting point, but keep tabs on what new players teams have added or which key contributors have left a team.

It will take a couple of weeks of NFL action to get an accurate read on how offenses and defenses are playing in the new year.

Listen to the Trends

Once the season is a few weeks old, it’s important to keep tabs on betting trends. Each game has a spread and over/under; which teams are doing the best against both?

If a team is covering the spread on a consistent basis, is it because they’re a misvalued underdog or a truly dominant team blowing everyone out?

Teams that do well against over/unders are usually a combination of strong offenses and poor defenses.

If a team has been scoring a lot of points, follow them in the weeks moving forward. Try and pair strong offenses against weak defenses in your betting picks.

Target Weak Defenses and Struggling Offensive Lines

The biggest key to betting the NFL in 2021 is to study the quality of a team’s defense and offensive line.

The age-old sayings apply to NFL betting as well. Defense wins championships, and it starts in the trenches.

Just ask the Kansas City Chiefs how important an offensive line is to winning a Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes was running for his life the entire Super Bowl against a strong Tampa Bay defensive line, while Tom Brady remained upright as his line protected him.

Once the NFL season gets going, the quality of both offensive line play and defensive play will become clear.

Pro Football Focus grades out pass-blocking and run-blocking, or you can track sacks allowed and pressures allowed. There are numerous ways to slice defensive performance, from points per game to yards allowed.

Finding overlaps between one strong offense playing a weak defense is always a great opportunity for a bet. More than just a bet on points or against the spread, it can be the right game to load up on player props for yards or touchdowns.

If you trust the adage that it ‘all starts in the trenches,’ find teams with strong lines on both ends playing a team that has the inverse.

A strong defensive line can wreck a game plan in a hurry.

If you do your homework, pay attention to betting trends, and target disparities between units, you should find betting success in the NFL this season.

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