Best Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears Prop Bets

The Chicago Bears are on their way to Cleveland to take on the Browns in what will be Justin Fields’ first NFL start on Sunday afternoon. Each team is 1-1 heading into this game, and this is a huge game for both teams.

Obviously, the debut of Justin Fields is huge for the Bears organization, and the Browns are a bit banged up and would prefer to start the season 2-1 while they battle with injuries and get healthy.

Let’s talk about the best individual angles to attack in this game.

Justin Fields Over 53.5 Rushing Yards

This line has grown over the course of the week because of the narrative coming out around Justin Fields and his rushing since debuting in the NFL preseason.

Fields has played basically two full games worth of snaps in his NFL career, including the preseason, and he has run for 123 yards in those snaps. That means we would expect 53.5 yards to be a bit low. However, that is just not enough of a reason.

More importantly, Fields has basically not gotten any pure QB run calls like QB power or QB draw, something that I expect to see given the formations they have shown with Fields in the game in the preseason.

I also expect Fields to be told to get out of the pocket in this matchup if he senses any issue, and they should be trailing in this game where Fields has to drop back and create plays.

The Browns have also struggled to deal with some running QBs, and their defense this season remains unchanged. They want to drop relatively deep on passing snaps, and they rarely leave a linebacker in to spy the QB, something that may not even work against someone as athletic as Fields.

Donovan Peoples-Jones Over 1.5 Receptions

Peoples-Jones has been a bit of a letdown this season, but this should be a nice spot to get on track as the clear WR2 in this offense with Landry out and Odell Beckham Jr. in (to some degree).

Obviously, the amount of OBJ snaps will be very important for Peoples-Jones, especially where those snaps come from with the Browns losing Landry and not having a great slot backup.

I would expect Odell to get a good amount of slot snaps because;

1. He is the best receiver on the team BY FAR
2. The Bears’ worst defensive player is the slot corner
3. The Browns should prefer to keep the other guys on the outside

If the Browns have the same thoughts as I do, I expect to see DPJ out there for something like 75% of the snaps, and this should just result in 2+ catches.

The Bears best corner, Jaylen Johnson, is very good, but we should get some snaps with him on Odell when DPJ is the second outside receiver, so there should be some balance where either DPJ is the WR1 getting a bunch of snaps or Odell starts outside, and DPJ sees fewer snaps but a better matchup. Either way, the over hits here.