Best Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs Bets

The Cleveland Browns are headed back to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch from last year’s playoffs. I think that looking at this matchup last year can be a bit beneficial here when trying to determine a prediction for this game, but first, we need to figure out what is different between the two teams.

Kansas City Chiefs Changes

Well, the Chiefs did not have Patrick Mahomes in the last eight minutes of this game, which is obviously a big deal and could be considered the reason that this game was as close as it was in the end. The Chiefs led 19 to 10 when Mahomes left the game, and Chad Henne took over. Henne threw an interception that allowed the Browns a chance to drive and take the lead.

The Chiefs also had a ton of offensive line issues that hurt their offense in this game, and I expect this issue to be relatively non-existent in this game. While the Browns pass rush, headlined by Myles Garrett, is a great unit, I think that the Chiefs have done a great job in protecting their franchise quarterback in the offseason, and this should show up in week one.

Cleveland Browns Changes

The Browns have dealt with less roster turnover since last season, and they really should play like the same team as last year with a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. Odell appears to be healthy and good to go for this matchup, and he is a guy that can definitely change the game with his raw ability to break off big plays.

Not to mention, the new-look Browns defense will create new looks that Kansas City didn't see the last time these teams faced.

The Spread

The Browns are a six-point underdog in this matchup, which makes sense based on the success of both teams last year. In the NFL, we know that home field is usually worth about three points, and that means that Vegas has the Browns being about three points worse than the Chiefs on a neutral site. This makes me want to stay away from this number because nothing really stands out here on this number.

The Totals: Over/Under

This is the spot to attack this game. 

The total is 53 in this matchup, and that number is too low for me based on the offensive talent on the field and the projected offensive lines in this game. While I am making assumptions of the Chiefs’ offensive line based on camp reports and overall talent added to the unit, even if they are a bit worse than I expect, I think that the Chiefs have shown the ability to figure this out as the game moves along. Even last year, with a much worse offensive line, they ended the first half with 19 points.

The previous matchup was also in mid-January in Kansas City, which will be much worse weather than what we expect on Sunday afternoon. Even then, this game had enough yards to get to 53 points without the offensive improvements that I expect to appear in this game. Take the over in this matchup, and I actually lean toward the over 29.5 and the over 23.5 for the Chiefs and Browns, respectively.

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