Why Checking the Weather is Important for NFL Betting

Why Checking the Weather is Important for NFL Betting

Barry Devoe
3 years ago
3 min read
NFL Betting: Why Checking the Weather is Important

Come football season, one of the more underrated variables to keep your eye on is the weather. The NFL is the only sport that the action is on, rain or shine. Baseball will be postponed; the other major sports are inside.

Football and weather are intertwined, and with games all across the country, there’s usually at least one game where the weather is a real factor towards the product on the field.

In terms of betting on the NFL, let me explain why checking the weather is so important.

Rain’s Impact

There are two major types of weather that you want to be wary of come football Sunday: rain and wind.

Rain will usually lead to a sloppy game. You’ll find that game totals are usually brought down by a few points if rain is in the forecast.

It becomes more difficult to pass the football, get traction in the run game, and everything in between.

If you see heavy rain in the forecast, you might want to take the game’s under, or at the very minimum, not bet the over.

Rain also has a tendency to bring down the quality of play. This shift in play often becomes a benefit for the lesser team. With a strong team’s explosiveness or advantages wiped away, the game becomes more random.

Randomness favors the underdog, and a rainy game can be a great opportunity to bet the underdog against the spread.

Wind’s Impact

Wind becomes a factor when it exceeds 15 mph. With heavy gusts in a stadium, the passing game can become an afterthought.

If a quarterback can’t control the football and reach his weapons, teams sometimes abandon the passing game entirely.

Wind can make the under the best bet of the afternoon.

Third Most Common Weather Disturbance

Beyond wind and rain, the most obvious other weather besides the sun would be snow. Snow games don’t happen as often as you think, with so much of the season happening in the fall.

However, if snow does enter the equation, you’ll most definitely want to target the under. All bets are off the table in a snow game. They make for great television, but they’re best to avoid in your NFL bets, fantasy football players, and prop bets.

Good Player Prop Value

Speaking of prop bets, checking the weather before games can help you find strong player prop value.

Player props are over/unders for yards or carries, based on that player’s involvement in the offense and projected role that weekend.

When wind or rain come into play, it’s a terrific opportunity to target the running backs on each team.

We mentioned the unders become better bets because the passing game tends to disappear. That reasoning directly correlates with more rushes on offenses.

The more runs a player has, the more likely he has to hit his prop’s over/under. Targeting running backs in cities with poor weather is a great strategy throughout the season.

Remember - if you’re checking the weather in each city on Sunday, there are a handful of teams that play indoors, thus eliminating weather as a factor.

There’s no need to check the weather for the following teams, as each stadium is either a dome or has a retractable roof:

  • Dallas
  • Los Angeles
  • Minnesota
  • Detroit
  • Houston
  • Arizona
  • Las Vegas
  • Indianapolis
  • New Orleans
  • Atlanta

Share article on: