Cincinnati Bearcats and the Mathematical Chances of The Bearcats Making the CFP

The Cincinnati Bearcats are perfect thus far in the regular season as they were last year in the regular season and have a great chance of making the College Football Playoff if they can continue to win. They just moved into the fifth-ranked team in the nation in Tuesday night’s Playoff show.

Let’s take a look at Cincinnati’s chances of making the playoffs and what the rest of their schedule looks like.

Cincinnati Playoff Chances

ESPN predicts that Cincinnati has a 50% chance of making the playoff at its current state. The teams ahead of them are Georgia (96%), Alabama (71%), Oregon (58%), and Ohio State (58%). Georgia and Oklahoma share in the Cincinnati glory of being two of the other unbeaten teams left in college football.

The Bearcats’ chances increase to 89% if they are able to win out and win their conference title. ESPN gives them a 7% chance to win the championship if they make the Playoff with that record. If the Bearcats lose one game whether that is in the regular season or the conference championship, the likelihood that Cincinnati will make the Playoff decreases greatly.

Every other team in front of the Bearcats has a higher chance to make the playoff if they are able to win out. Cincinnati needs to hope that they can win out and that there is a lot of havoc in front of them to give them a better chance to move up in the rankings and make the Playoff.

Cincinnati Remaining Schedule

The Bearcats will play at South Florida, versus SMU at home, and at East Carolina. This weekend’s matchup at South Florida is the highest win possible for the Bearcats at 93%. The game at home against SMU will be their toughest matchup, but ESPN gives Cincinnati a 79% chance of winning. They finish the season at East Carolina with an 84% chance to win.

The big thing that Cincinnati has going for itself is that they have a very good chance of going undefeated including a conference championship and the other teams don’t have an easy road ahead. Teams like Oregon and Ohio State have tough matchups left on their schedule that will ruin their Playoff chances if they were to lose those games.

It is looking likely that Alabama and Georgia will win out and make the Playoff besides probably playing each other in the SEC championship which shouldn’t dramatically hurt either of their chances. Oregon will face Baylor, No. 24 Utah, and Oregon State and have a 60-80% chance to win those games. Ohio State still has to face Michigan State and Michigan. 

Cincinnati’s Playoff Reality

There has never been a Group of 5 team that has been a legitimate candidate to make the College Football Playoff this late in the season and Cincinnati has a great chance to be the first. They have the best chance to win out but need to rely on other teams to lose to give them a chance.

If teams above them win out, they will not make the Playoff, but with one loss out of those teams, they have a great chance. There will be a loss in the top four, but can Cincinnati dominate the games they should win and give them a chance at the glory of making the Playoff? That is the million-dollar question.