U.S. Open Golf Betting Picks & Predictions

U.S. Open Golf Betting Picks & Predictions

Barry Devoe
5 months ago
4 min read
Rory McIlroy addresses the media during a press conference for the U.S. Open

The U.S. Open is set to tee off at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. Like every major, the prized jewel of the USGA features all of the big-name golfers fans know and love.

There is no shortage of players who have a chance to win this week. But only a few have the right combination of talent, moxie, and betting value that necessitates a pre-tournament wager.

Here are the top betting picks to consider for the U.S. Open.

Jon Rahm (+1400)

Entering the week, Jon Rahm has the third-highest odds to win behind Rory McIlroy (+900) and PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas (+1100). But last year’s U.S. Open champion looks like a man on a mission to repeat.

If there’s one thing that all U.S. Open winners must have, it’s accuracy off of the tee. Fortunately, Rahm is the current leader in Strokes Gained: off-the-tee. He is also fourth in SG: tee-to-green, which is a comprehensive measurement taking in a little of every stat.

Rahm has the stats on his side, but he also has the major pedigree. The Spaniard has nine top-10 finishes in majors, including in all four events from 2021. It also helps that his lone victory came in a U.S. Open, showing that he knows what to expect from golf’s most difficult tournament.

Rahm is getting the same odds as Scottie Scheffler, the 2022 Master’s champion. But given his recent track record and his history at the U.S. Open, Rahm should be right next to Rory as one of the unquestioned favorites in this tournament.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2200)

For a guy who has no majors and no PGA Tour victories, Matthew Fitzpatrick is getting a ton of buzz this week. However, the hype is warranted thanks to a distinct advantage Fitzpatrick holds over the rest of the competition.

In 2013, The Country Club hosted the U.S. Amateur Championship. The 18-year-old Fitzpatrick won the event, which is still the most recent tournament the course has hosted before this week.

Now 27, the Englishman isn’t just returning to a course he knows better than most. He’s doing so while playing some inspired golf, ranking 10th in SG: off-the-tee and fifth in SG: tee-to-green. He’s also one of the game’s top scramblers, which will come in handy in the overgrown rough that surrounds many of the tiny greens.

Fitzpatrick has seen a slight uptick in odds since lines first opened, but his +2200 is still lower than six other players. If there’s a time for him to break through, this week might be it.

Viktor Hovland (+3300)

On the surface, Viktor Hovland has everything you want in a major champion. Yet his major results have been less than exemplary, although there’s reason to think that will change in the near future.

The 24-year-old has made the cut in nine of his ten major appearances but has no top-10 finishes and only four top-25 placings. That said, his two best performances were in U.S. Opens, finishing T12 as the low amateur in 2019 and T13 in 2020.

Statistically, Hovland fits the bill of a future winner. He’s 17th in SG: off-the-tee, seventh in SG: approach-the-green, and averages the fifth-most birdies of anyone on Tour, which might come in handy for a tournament where scoring could be marginal. If it wasn’t for poor stats around the green, he’d easily be one of the top-five golfers in the field.

Hovland will have to rely on his above-average driving and iron game in the hopes of avoiding a lot of scrambling situations. But as +3300, there’s too much value for a golfer who’s currently eighth in the world, according to the OWGR.

Aaron Wise (+7000)

There hasn’t been a massive upset at the U.S. Open since Gary Woodland in 2019. Coincidentally, that was the only U.S. Open Aaron Wise has competed in until this year, where he is one underdog worth betting on.

The 25-year-old Wise finished T35 at Pebble Beach in 2019, a course that many have compared to The Country Club due to its small greens. While he hasn’t won any tournaments between then and now, he’s 10th in SG: approach over his last 24 rounds and 16th overall this season. He’s also a respectable 40th in SG: off-the-tee and inside the top-30 in birdie percentage.

Wise’s play off the tee helped pave the way to a runner-up finish at this month’s Memorial Tournament. If it wasn’t for a disastrous week with the putter, there’s a chance he would have secured his first PGA Tour victory. 

Wise is a top-25 player based on driving and approach shots, but his putting has kept him in relative anonymity. If he can figure out these undulating greens, there’s a chance he’ll be firmly in contention during the fourth round on Sunday.

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